Author: Alessandro Catalano

NPL Italy 2022 - Wrap up

NPL Italy 2022 – Wrap up

What are the main insights from the NPL Italy 2022, that was held in Milan? 

Our Marco Masotto and Alessandro Catalano summed up the trends and news from the conference for us:

MARKET MAIN TRENDS

  • 2022 started slowly as in the previous year, with a recent pick-up mainly related to recent GACS (Intesa €4bn, ICCREA €650mn) 
  • The market has changed in comparison to the first wave of NPLs when the need of the bank to reduce NPE ratios pushed for high volumes and fast processes
  • The year-end transaction is expected to be in general in line with estimates (€11bn UTP + €35bn NPL)
  • There are a few jumbo deals to come on the market and higher flowing activity
  • The end of the debt moratorium (used more in Italy than other countries) is expected to cause an acceleration in deterioration with the SMEs segment most hit (to be understood the implication of state guarantees on c. €280bn through FCG and SACE)

On the regulations side

  • Regulators’ pressure to maintain banks’ NPE ratios at current <5% and bank policies to reduce NPE (e.g. ISP’s zero NPE) are expected to support volumes
  • After the much-awaited NPL template, EBA is expected to publish a paper covering best practices on NPL trades

UTP

  • UTP’ are now representing the highest portion of banks’ stock
  • In 2022, still humble although, some jumbo deals pending from 2021 are now rumored to be close to completion (mainly with a portfolio approach rather than single name one)
  • Segment expected to be most hit by the gloomy economic scenario both in terms of inflows (Stage 2 to UTP) and outflows (UTP to NPL)

Secondary market

  • The positive trend of the secondary market is expected to continue sustaining volumes and collection of GACS’ business plans until GACS 2.0 will be announced
  • New niche opportunities can be found in second-tier regional markets where investors have specific knowledge

Investors, in particular international ones, are now seeking higher returns net of inflation although the market has not repriced yet pushing to wait&see/opportunistic stances

Investors sit on a high level of liquidity that is not finding investment opportunities, supporting a soft correction in the market for new transactions

Hard assets (RE, hospitality, and logistics above all) are expected to slow down and reprice (also in light of up to 30% higher construction costs) but not stop

SERVICERS

  • A wave of integration is expected among big and generalist players, while smaller and specialized ones are to remain independent and increase vertical integration
  • Automation and technology is key to reducing costs by improving processes and supporting core activities through AI and models.
  • Players are looking at external tech and startups to move faster.
  • UTP remains a segment with very specific needs and tailor-made strategies that are less adapted to be automated.
  • Bad data quality remains an issue, although it is expected to improve thanks to smaller flow transactions with fresher data (vs recent peaks).
  • Opportunities in RE securitization will push some players to become RE Asset Managers.

SECURITIZATIONS

  • The market started to use the tool in 2018 with GACS and since then it further developed thanks to the flexibility it gives in terms of structures into 3 main categories:
    • Rated GACS
    • Private unrated transactions
    • Rated transactions with no GACS

GACS remains at the center of the discussions

  • General underperformance on collections (even before the Covid impact) in comparison with the Business Plan and decent results in terms of profitability.
  • GACS experience is considered to be positive for most of the stakeholders (sen, mezz noteholders, originators, and servicers) but not clear the results for the Government.

About GACS 2.0:

  • It is expected in September with market participants desiring an extension to UTP but not expecting it to materialize (in particular considering difficulties to issue a rating and typical exposures being rather chunky).
  • The new format should not penalize mezzanine investors who are key to the asset class.

Financial markets turmoil 

  • to impact guarantee cost linked to CDS levels.
  • To push solution to cover interest rate risk of unhedged private transactions.

Investors have shown very different approaches based on transaction type:

  • Passive and rather detached on public deals.
  • Very active with day-to-day involvement in private transactions.

Expected return on the investment:

  • The IRR is expected to raise in the future in order to adjust the nominal increase due to the consequences related to the war in Ukraine and the cost-related issues;
  • As a consequence, the NPE asset will be affected in pricing.

Master Servicers’ role is expected to become more and more important moving from a “regulatory need” to the main reference for external counterparties in light of increasing push of Bank of Italy on their role.

The secondary market is active although not huge, driven by transactions aimed at:

  • Get rid of assets
  • Cherry-pick exposures
  • Buy portfolio to then split them
  • Build portfolios with a critical mass
  • Sustain GACS BP: although very tricky to keep the trade-off with profitability
  • Trade of Notes
Cardo AI will support Opyn fundraising process through the use of our Hyper Data Room

Cardo AI will support Opyn fundraising process through the use of our Hyper Data Room

Developed by Cardo AI – a private debt intelligence platform – in collaboration with Opyn – a leading digital lending platform based in Italythe Hyper Data Room is a flexible tool for all originators that want to increase transparency towards existing and potential investors.

Opyn (formerly known as BorsadelCredito.it), a leading digital lending platform based in Italy, has signed a partnership with Cardo AI, a fintech company that provides AI-based solutions to the private debt market. 

Cardo AI will support Opyn during the fundraising process through the use of its brand new product – the Hyper Data Room. 

Cardo AI Hyper Data Room

The hDR has been built to support credit originators during the due diligence process with institutional investors. Private debt market investors are seeking standard metrics to quickly gain deeper insights into potential investments. 

The hDR allows originators to deliver that level of transparency with a single upload of their loan book. Investors can easily slice and dice the portfolio, calculate standard performance statistics, navigate in time and directly apply stress test simulations to the loan book under analysis. 

Andrea Papa, Business Operations & Development Manager at Opyn:

“Opyn is growing at a fast pace. In 2021 alone, we originated almost €400mln amounting to over 5 times the volume of loans compared with the previous year, thanks to a wider investor base. To keep this pace of growth, we need to rely on technology and speed. New investors are interested in interacting with us and running their analysis on our loan book. In Cardo AI we found a reliable partner to support our growth, as the hDR solution allows us to provide existing and potential investors with all the data they need, in a fast and reliable manner, facilitating and speeding up the due diligence process.”

Marco Masotto, Head of Securitization at Cardo AI, commented:

“We are proud to be the partner of choice for Opyn during a very sensitive process such as fundraising. Thanks to our proprietary Hyper Data Room solution, Opyn is now able to provide potential investors with real-time updates on the performance of their loan book, granting complete transparency. All the relevant metrics are calculated by Cardo AI from raw data, removing all operational risks, ensuring high-quality information, and increasing trust among market participants.”

About Opyn

Opyn is the first platform that gives companies quick access to credit and simplifies the work of banks. Born in 2012 as a broker of online loans, today, thanks to its paperless and highly innovative technology, Opyn offers, on one hand, financing in 24 hours and cash in a few days to Italian SMEs, and, on the other hand, its software as a service to financial and corporate realities that want to support their clients in an immediate and smart way through artificial intelligence and machine learning.

With over 391.5 mln in credit disbursed in 2021, Opyn supported 1,275 companies for 550 mln, becoming a benchmark in the sector in Italy.

About Cardo AI

Cardo AI is a fintech scale-up founded in 2018 with the mission of revolutionizing the private debt market through the use of AI-powered technology. CARDO AI has supported asset managers, servicers, and banks to manage more than €5bn in assets, including alternative funds and securitizations. 

CARDO AI’s solutions cover the entire investment lifecycle, from data sourcing and treatment (data quality and data enrichment), and due diligence, to the most sophisticated predictive analyses, which include cash flow projections and portfolio optimization.

With offices in Milan, Tirana, and London, CARDO AI counts over 80 talents, from software and data engineers to data scientists.

Cardo AI launches the Hyper Data Room

Cardo AI Hyper Data Room

At Cardo AI we have a brand new product: the hyper data room. Keep reading to find out more about our new groundbreaking data room system and how it can help asset managers and institutional investors manage their private debt investments. 

Organizations operating in the private debt market need to be able to analyze investment opportunities and deals, estimate their potential value, and prioritize the best options. In addition, asset managers and investors have to provide data, information, and attention to various stakeholders, which means they need a way to securely store and share critical information. 

Cardo AI hyper data room enables our clients to do just that. 

What is Cardo AI’s Hyper Data Room?

Virtual data rooms are online repositories of information that allow multiple agents to view, analyze and collaborate on critical data and documents. As our platform holds important information regarding transactions, loans, and securitization activities, the VDR system will make it very easy for our users to access sensitive documents, contracts, and any other type of data they are ready to share with a third party, in a very secure, cost-effective and efficient manner.

But Cardo AI’s Data room doesn’t stop there. You will also gain a deep understanding of the risks associated with your investments, identify and focus your efforts on the most promising opportunities, and track your estimated performance with the help of powerful summary statistics our system dashboard provides.

Furthermore, as VDRs use encrypted web connections, the storage of all sensitive data and distribution of documents is completely secure. You will never have to worry about the safety of your data again!

Benefits of a hyper data room with Cardo AI

There are several benefits of implementing a data room solution. Let’s look at some of the main advantages of a VDR system and how specifically Cardo AI’s hyper data room can bring value to your organization!

Advanced analytics

In order to support the assessment and analysis processes, the data room offers advanced analytic tools and detailed views on your operations, which allows you to gain even more insights into your business and increase the accuracy of your decisions. 

A high granularity means that you can dive into your data at an individual deal or transaction level.

For example, from your portfolio view, you can have a 1 click drill-down to single loan data, or 2 clicks drill-down to cash flows view. 

Cardo AI’s hyper data room will enable you to quickly answer questions such as:

  • What is the estimated value of this investment opportunity?
  • What are the potential upside/downside scenarios for these investments?
  • What has been the past performance for my target sectors? 
  • And much more!

Accessibility and reliability

With our hyper data room, investors have a centralized point of access for their existing and potential transactions, which reduces errors and time spent crunching data. It becomes very easy to navigate information and streamline workflows, as data rooms ensure the quality, accessibility, and reliability of data in all stages of the transaction. 

Furthermore, agents are able to keep data always updated thanks to an automatized sync process, that provides powerful, real-time insights. 

Fully Digital and Fast Due Diligence

The due diligence process can be complex and challenging, as a lot of sensitive data is handled through it. This usually results in slow operations and a lot of time spent managing documents. 

With Cardo AI’s hyper data room, you can facilitate the due diligence process or audit process by digitalizing and speeding up significantly all operations. 

What you can do with our Hyper Data Room

Here are some of the main actions that the data room enables you to do very quickly:

  • Easy retrieval of data: with our user-friendly and intuitive dashboard, you need just a few clicks to get the insights and documents you need. 
  • Advanced Filtering: Do you want to analyze a certain pool of assets from selected industries? Or filter up data based on deal size? With data rooms, users can quickly select and filter specific pools of assets, according to their needs. 
  • Data stratification and aggregation: according to different dimensions such as geography, sector ecc.
  • Quick calculation of summary statistics

Complete transparency

Transparency is essential as market agents have to analyze great volumes of data and often need to create, organize and exchange a variety of sensitive documents. 

With data rooms, you can easily keep data always up-to-date to grant full transparency and comply with regulatory requirements from external parties. 

How do we ensure complete transparency?

A dedicated help module inside the data room allows the user to know exactly how the algorithms work and what is the logic behind the displayed data. 

Secure access to the information you need, anytime and anywhere

Gain secure access at any time and from any location worldwide with a web browser.

Enable different authorizations and security levels

Multi-layered permissions can ensure that external parties only access the information they need. Options for restricting what users can do with files can also be defined, while new members and external parties can be quickly added to the data room with one click. Granting temporary or permanent access to selected users becomes easier than ever, allowing you to always detain maximum control over sensitive and confidential information. 

Are you ready to revolutionize the way you manage your private debt investments? Discover more about our hyper data room system and request your demo today!

About the author

Alessandro Catalano

Alessandro is a Senior ABS analyst at Cardo AI and currently focuses on our Equalizer platform.

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